OpinionThe recent swine 'flu will be impossible to contain (as opposed to dying out over summer, as SARS did).
      – Lee J Haywood, 2009-04-27 at 09:25:48   (38 comments)

On 2009-04-27 at 09:29:28, Lee J Haywood wrote...
It's likely that either prediction on this has a good chance of being wrong. On the one hand, influenza spreads very well but on the other it won't get far if it kills too many of its victims. On the third hand, it seems to be infecting a large number without killing them. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak @BorgClown: Any news from Mexico?
On 2009-04-27 at 17:18:01, Baslisks wrote...
We've had this flu forever! Won't kill as many people this time around. Not the spanish flu this time and we are used to it.
On 2009-04-27 at 19:51:49, Lee J Haywood wrote...
It simply isn't true that we're used to it, although previous epidemics will have provided some protection by wiping out those who don't. Immunity is very specific, and protection against one strain is rarely helpful when another comes along, e.g. when a novel binding to the airways helps it to multiply. Interestingly, though, the new strain is more deadly than the Spanish 'flu but with a fatality rate of only 7% it's got a strong chance of spreading unchecked. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak#Pandemic_concern http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1894059,00.html?xid=rss-photoessays
On 2009-04-27 at 19:53:33, BorgClown wrote...
At last! Our socialist plot to end with the capitalistic swines is rolling! First we infect ourselves, then we kill ourselves, then... oh, wait.
On 2009-04-27 at 19:59:26, BorgClown wrote...
It's being overhyped. Even the church couldn't stay out of the spotlight, they took a christ statue for a ride, burned incense and prayed. Come on, it's a new flu virus, and as long as you're not already ill or immunocompromised (is that a word?) it is curable with antivirals. I mean, we have to be careful because almost everybody is prone to be infected, but it's not the end of the world. Lots people get the flu each year, and sadly, it already kills many.
On 2009-04-27 at 20:02:21, BorgClown wrote...
I'm working with some people from Mexico City, so me and a few coworkers are at risk. Some of them don't want to touch the elevator buttons, LOL. If I manage to get infected, hey, fever and pain, but lots of paid rest!
On 2009-04-27 at 20:32:17, Lee J Haywood wrote...
It's a good point that lots of people already die from influenza, but the difference here is that it's not just those with weakened immune systems (the very young and elderly) that die. Not touching elevator buttons is actually something that would have helped with SARS, where an entire floor of a hotel got infected thanks to a single individual. In theory you only need a single virus particle to get infected - once it starts replicating, it'll eventually spread extensively. A friend told me that one of her friends had been jabbed with a tattoo needle just once, momentarily, before changing their mind - only to then discover that they'd got Hepatitis C from it. Getting an airborne disease happens even easier, and avoiding breathing in other people's exhalations really does make a difference.
On 2009-04-27 at 21:36:50, Lee J Haywood wrote...
There's some more information here. http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20090427/hl_time/08599189402900
On 2009-04-28 at 00:06:50, BorgClown wrote...
I so want to tag this as "swine" ='(
On 2009-04-28 at 00:13:01, BorgClown wrote...
Well, it must be more serious than I can see. It's just that the mortality ratio is too low to justify the hype. It has been confirmed that common antivirals nuke it, so just ask the laboratories to make some more and make them country-wide available, dammit.
On 2009-04-28 at 08:11:40, Lee J Haywood wrote...
Then I guess it's a question of whether or not mandatory quarantine is in force. If not, international air travel makes it inevitable that it'll spread to everyone quickly, and stocks of Tamiflu have always been limited. I see the opposite situation to you - a low mortality rate is bad, because a disease as deadly as Ebola cannot spread because it kills its victims before they can pass it on. And with a 7 % mortality rate, do you want a 7 % chance of dying if everyone you know catches it (including those that never get regular 'flu?)
On 2009-04-28 at 14:08:58, Thelevellers wrote...
I'm conflicted in my opinion of this - usually I am in the 'I never get 'flu - sod it' camp, but I got 'flu for the first time this year, which I find hard to tell myself isn't connected to getting diabetes last year, so I now have a certain amount of doubt in my mind as to whether I am a hardcore flu survivor any more... :S I'm with Lee on the mortality rate issue - I played Pandemic enough to learn that! In fact, having played that I now have an image of someone having started this to see if their virus really would do as well as the game said... ;-)
On 2009-04-28 at 14:27:41, Thelevellers wrote...
Oh dear, I just stumbled this... (first stumble since reading this thread to - spooky! ;-) http://imgur.com/27K39.jpg
On 2009-04-28 at 20:18:28, Baslisks wrote...
Wow, the pandemic idea just showed me the truth.
On 2009-04-29 at 05:14:34, BorgClown wrote...
I was wondering how a whole floor of a hotel can get infected. It would make more sense to infect the entire building, as people rarely interact much in the same floor. Maybe the guy sneezed on the ice machine =)
On 2009-04-29 at 05:18:52, Baslisks wrote...
They all pressed the button that had the infection.
On 2009-04-29 at 08:36:12, Lee J Haywood wrote...
It's interesting that no-one has agreed with this opinion - i.e. there's a feeling that it will all blow over, even though the official response is to assume that it cannot be contained. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8021827.stm It does seem to be limited to Mexico, perhaps for environmental reasons, so we can hope that it stays that way. In Mexico the ENT doctors are having to deal with a lot of people who think they might have swine 'flu just because they have a cough.
On 2009-04-29 at 08:59:22, Lee J Haywood wrote...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8022102.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8023820.stm
On 2009-04-29 at 13:19:28, Thelevellers wrote...
@Lee J Haywood: I'm not convinced by it being confined to Mexico - the wiki article has a fairly well updated chart of confirmed cases which says there has been a death in the US due to swine 'flu now...
On 2009-04-29 at 18:20:35, Lee J Haywood wrote...
To clarify, I meant that it's only a problem outside Mexico if it is as deadly - and that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment. There are diseases confined to Africa that are expected to migrate with climate change, but for the time being they are limited by their environment and perhaps the swine 'flu will be limited by the normal 'flu season as well as variation between countries and populations.
On 2009-04-30 at 00:28:47, BorgClown wrote...
I told you it's nothing big. And this chart proves it! http://www.eatliver.com/i.php?n=4271
On 2009-04-30 at 00:32:43, BorgClown wrote...
@Thelevellers: The USA death was a baby in Texas. A Mexican baby. He had the misfortune of getting ill outside, so the death count as an international one and elevates the status of the threat as pandemic. Still, it's sad so many deaths are due to complications, a combined swine flu infection and a bacterial one, pneumonia being the usual result of not getting attention fast.
On 2009-04-30 at 00:39:01, BorgClown wrote...
It's disturbing to see so many people using surgical masks on the streets, those are supposed ti be used on closed environments, and they offer only slight protection. It feels like Japan and the bird flu.
On 2009-04-30 at 21:49:06, Thelevellers wrote...
http://sandnsurf.posterous.com/western-philosophy *giggles*
On 2009-05-01 at 01:04:17, BorgClown wrote...
Ha ha, I LOLed.
On 2009-05-01 at 16:49:49, Baslisks wrote...
Its not funny anymore, people have now taken to the joke....
On 2009-05-06 at 18:36:36, Lee J Haywood wrote...
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/05/2009_swine_flu_outbreak.html
On 2009-06-06 at 05:29:50, BorgClown wrote...
http://909sickle.com/s/paranoid/
On 2009-06-08 at 23:04:17, Thelevellers wrote...
@BorgClown: LMAO! That's excellent...
On 2009-06-09 at 01:46:06, BorgClown wrote...
Even without faces they are very expressive.
On 2009-11-04 at 16:45:15, BorgClown wrote...
I officially have swine flu, the test result was positive. I'll be at home all week, although I won't use the computer a lot because it kinda irritates my eyes. I feel guilty for enjoying it.
On 2009-11-04 at 16:49:45, Lee J Haywood wrote...
It'd be interesting to hear a summary of your symptoms when you get to the end. The first day I had a fever and aching joints. The next 2 days I had bad diarrhoea and no appetite, with nausea. After forcing two-thirds of a meal on the third day I threw it back up, and immediately had my appetite back for the last third. Then it was a case of getting my strength back over the next couple of days - about 5-6 in total.
On 2009-11-04 at 16:59:38, BorgClown wrote...
I've been sick since two Mondays ago. It came and went (like the chameleon), but yesterday before sleeping my left eye started to swell. It turns out that my body was giving such good a fight I didn't get really sick, but eventually my immune system got weakened, so a mere conjunctivitis started to get serious. Right now I feel a little dizzy, my throat is sore, my eye is swollen, my nose is dripping and I am hungry as hell. I tried to be careful, I hope I didn't infect others last week. Some people insist on handshakes, serves them well.
On 2009-11-04 at 17:02:39, Lee J Haywood wrote...
@BorgClown: Maybe you're doing them a good service by helping them to get sick sooner.
On 2009-11-04 at 17:10:53, BorgClown wrote...
But the suckers don't get sick, maybe that's why they don't care.
On 2009-11-04 at 21:58:18, Melchior wrote...
Quite a large part of me wants to see everything go wrong - it would do wonders for our rising population. That does assume that I'd survive though, so maybe not such a good idea :p I really can't see it getting so out of control. Killing even 20% of the population would be a lot, but once they die it's "contained" itself.
On 2009-11-04 at 23:18:37, Lee J Haywood wrote...
Actually the opposite was true - the topic suggested the virus would stop spreading in the summer, but that's when it really took hold around the world. Which is almost surprising, given the seasonal patterns for regular 'flu. It goes to show that the disease is here to stay - for at least another year or two. It's already not contained - it was declared a pandemic a long time ago.
On 2009-11-05 at 00:02:52, BorgClown wrote...
Also, some people act as asymptomatic transmitters, and even if they don't sneeze on you the virus can survive from two to ten hours in open air. Elevator buttons, keyboards, handles, etc.